FELIX NWANERI OF National Mirror writes on the likely impact of the defection of five governors of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, to the All Progressives Congress, APC, in the 2015 presidential election.

Nigerians are in for interesting times as the build up to the 2015 elections particularly that for the presidency hots up, given the maneuverings by the leading political parties and other interest groups across the country.

Already, some political leaders in the North have stepped up their agitation for the return of power to their region, even as the incumbent president, Goodluck Jonathan, who hails from the South-South zone, has the constitutional right to vie for a second term.

But, beyond the North's clamour, which is based on the zoning agreement of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and the President's second term bid, which many believe will have effect on the outcome of the poll, there are other factors that will definitely play significant roles in deciding the next occupant of the Presidential Villa.

One of such factors, no doubt is the recent defection of five of the seven PDP aggrieved governors to the All Progressives Congress, APC.

The governors – Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano), Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara), Murtala Nyako (Adamawa) and Chibuike Amaechi (Rivers), dumped the PDP over alleged high handedness of the Bamanga Tukur-led leadership of the party.

While many had initially contented that the defection will be mainly felt in the legislative and governorship elections than the presidential poll, emerging trends in the polity shows that the real battle would be the presidency.

Even the leadership of the PDP, which was quick to dismiss the action of the governors as "of no consequence," has inadvertently admitted that it is something to worry about.

The Chairman, Board of Trustees, BoT, of the party, Chief Tony Anenih, who described the defection as a big threat to the party, said it was a sad development that the five governors left the party.

He said: "Indeed, I had expected the governors to stay on in the party which offered them a unique opportunity to serve their people. Surprisingly, they decided to abandon their home and platform to take up tenancy in an opposition party even when it was apparent that the effort of Mr. President for a genuine reconciliation was enough for them to see good reason to show restraint and understanding."

The President, who also said the action of the governors would not hamper the success of PDP in future elections, was however emphatic at the weekend, when he said in an interview he granted shortly before leaving Paris after the two-day summit on peace and security in Africa hosted by President Francois Hollande of France, that the PDP would prefer having the governors back.

"We want those governors to come back to PDP, but in an event where some of them feel that it is better outside, they can also go and try. If they are leaving, we will work harder to make sure that we get more supporters so that at the end of the day, that equilibrium will be maintained," Jonathan said.

Why would the PDP, which prides itself as the largest political party in Africa, be jittery over the defection of just five men? Many have asked. The answer could not be far from the fact that the party's bigwigs like Anenih, who is a master of the game, knows that politics is dynamic, as the scale and balance of power tends to be tilting to the opposition ahead of 2015.

Former Lagos State governor and leader of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, who belongs to the political school of thought that holds such view, recently averred that the alliance between the PDP governors and the opposition is one that will change Nigeria's political landscape.

He said: "Nigeria's political landscape has changed. It will change forever and change for good. The scale and balance of power is tilting and changing to the opposition. We are moving from imperialism to proper democracy.

"This development will start reshaping the landscape of politics in this country forever. Not for us only but for generation unborn, the future of this country to take its position as a leader in Africa and not just a well populated country that is big and directionless."

Tinubu is one man whose political sagacity cannot be ignored, but the President's camp has dismissed his submission. However, analysts have contended that the defection of the governors, except for those who have chosen to see it differently and for obvious reasons, has surely depleted the rank of the PDP with APC being the beneficiary.

As it stands, the PDP now controls 18 states against the 23 it had before the defection. The APC has 16, while the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA and Labour Party, LP, have one state apiece. Initially, the APC had 11 states in its kitty after the merger of the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, (six), All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP, (three); Congress for Progressive Change, CPC, (one) and a faction of APGA (one).

The ruling party's fortune is expected to further diminish except it gets its house in order before the elections, as there are speculations that the two remaining members of the aggrieved governors – Sule Lamido (Jigawa) and Babangida Aliyu (Niger) are expected to jump ship in January.

It is believed in some quarters that though the duo have declared that they will remain in the PDP to salvage the party, they are obviously staying back to play the spoiler before joining their colleagues in the APC.

Should this happen, the APC will then have 18 governors, while the PDP would be left with 16, and it would be a test of strength between the President and the "rebel" governors, who all along had insisted that Jonathan respects the "single term agreement" he entered with them in 2011.

For instance, in Adamawa State, where Nyako calls the shot, it would be seen how political gladiators like Tukur, Prof. Jibril Aminu and former Governor Boni Haruna (who has returned to the PDP) will deliver the state to the President.

No doubt, the PDP has controlled the state since 1999, but in the 2011 presidential election, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (then of the CPC) made a strong showing with 344,526 (37.6 per cent) votes against President Jonathan's 508,314 (56 per cent).

It is belived that now that Nyako has dumped the PDP for the APC with his many loyalists, the opposition is likely to have the upper hand, as it is unlikely that even Tukur and others left will come together and work for the PDP.

Same scenario is likely to play out in Rivers State. This oil-rich state will definitely be a battle ground in the 2015 polls and the presidential election would be a test of strength between President Jonathan and Governor Amaechi. Both men have been locked in a supremacy battle that has polarized the state PDP.

Though Jonathan comes from neighbouring Bayelsa, Amaechi has the potential to swing enough votes for the APC despite the belief among stakeholders in the South-South zone that the President's second term bid should be supported by all in the region.

Jonathan polled 1.8 million votes (96.9 per cent) against Buhari's 13, 182 (0.7 per cent) in the state in the 2011 presidential election, but given Amaechi's popularity and the fact that majority of elected public office holders in the state are on his side, the APC is likely to turn the table in the 2015 polls.

The challenge then is on Nyesom Wike, the Supervising Minister of Education, and other PDP gladiators to proof their acclaimed control of the political structure and direction of the state in 2015.

Kano is another state which the PDP is sure to lose with the defection of Governor Kwankwaso. The party, like in 2003, 2007 and 2011 will surely lose the presidential election in Kano in 2015. The state has over three million voters.

The PDP governed the state between 1999 and 2003 through Kwankwaso while Ibrahim Shekarau of the ANPP ruled between 2003 and 2011 until the return of Kwankwaso in 2011, but in a free and fair contest, the APC is sure of winning the state in 2015.

In the 2011 poll, Buhari polled 1.6 million (59.1 per cent) votes against Jonathan's 440, 666 (16.01 per cent) while Shekarau, who contested on the ANPP's platform, polled 526, 310 (19.7 per cent) votes. It is against this backdrop that analysts believe that nothing spectacular is expected of the PDP in the state, in 2015.

Like Kano, Kwara is also expected to go the APC way, as the Olusola Saraki dynasty, which has for long decided the political equation in the state has pitched tent with the APC.

The scion of the Saraki family, Bukola, is one of the arrowheads of the New PDP that defected to the APC and Governor Ahmed owes his emergence as governor to the younger Saraki, who is a former governor of the state and now senator representing Kwara Central. Except for a miracle, the PDP may not make any serious impact in the 2015 elections in Kwara State.

It would be recalled that the defunct ACN now APC gave the PDP a serious challenge in the 2011 elections. And with the fusion of the forces in both parties, Kwara will surely go the way of APC in 2015. In the 2011 poll, Jonathan secured 268, 243 (60.93 per cent) of the 435, 359 total votes cast while Buhari's CPC polled 83, 603 (19.20 per cent) votes and ACN's Nuhu Ribdu secured 52,432 votes.

Governor Wamakko is also believed to have the capability to sway votes in his state (Sokoto) to his new party – the APC, though Buhari defeated Jonathan in the state by 540,769 to 309,057 votes in the last election.

And while Governors Lamido and Aliyu have declared that they will stay put in the PDP, it is doubtful if they will be committed to the re-election bid of President Jonathan in 2015.

Even in the 2011 presidential election, Buhari defeated Jonathan in Jigawa with 663,994 votes against 419,252. The same played out in Niger State, as the PDP lost the 2011 presidential election in the state even with Aliyu. Buhari polled 652,574 votes to defeat Jonathan who secured 321, 429 votes.

These political calculations and the fact that the South-West, which gave the President overwhelming support in the 2011 poll will vote enmasse for the APC in 2015, leaves analysts with the conviction that the PDP, a centrist party that has dominated the country's political space since the return to civil rule in 1999, may likely take the back stage after the 2015 elections.